深潮TechFlow|Sep 28, 2026 09:04
[JPMorgan: Corporate Financing Surplus Nears 2% of GDP, Buybacks Support U.S. Stocks]
Deep Tide TechFlow reports, according to Tide Research, JPMorgan's research report dated September 24, 2026, indicates that in the second quarter of 2026, the U.S. corporate financing surplus was close to 2% of the U.S. GDP, marking the highest level during non-crisis periods since data became available in 1952. The surplus for non-financial corporations was approximately 1.5%, the highest during non-crisis periods since 1958. Global stock buybacks in 2026 are expected to reach $1.7 trillion, with U.S. corporations accounting for $1.3 trillion.
The production cost of Bitcoin is approximately $85,000, and after 280 consecutive days of trading below this cost, its price has surpassed this level. Network hash rate and mining difficulty have decreased by about 19% and 15%, respectively, from their peaks in October of last year. JPMorgan believes that cash flow growth is outpacing capital expenditures, meaning the corporate sector as a whole does not require additional financing. The financing surplus supports buybacks, particularly for companies outside the technology sector.
AI-related capital expenditures are crowding out other types of capital expenditures, leading to moderate overall capital expenditure growth, with no signs of the excesses seen in the late 1990s. Bitcoin miners are undergoing a structural shift toward AI, reducing the risk of forced selling, though hash rate growth has slowed. Bond futures momentum signals have returned to more extreme bearish territory, with the standard deviation scores for 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds and German bunds returning to -1.7 and -1.5, respectively.
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