The market this weekend is pretty boring, with minimal volatility. Looking at the 4-hour structure, bitcoin:native does show signs of building upward momentum, but it’s still too early to confirm that a new rally has started. Lows are steadily climbing, the price has reclaimed the short-term moving average, and a small-scale ascending triangle has formed. Open interest remains low, and funding rates are relatively mild, indicating there’s no obvious leverage crowding in the market for now. ETFs have seen net inflows for seven consecutive days, and spot buying is still holding up. Right now, there’s only one issue: trading volume hasn’t picked up yet. Bulls are in a better position, but price, volume, and external markets haven’t aligned yet. Once the U.S. stock market opens tomorrow, the direction might become clearer. If the Nasdaq strengthens and U.S. Treasury yields remain stable, BTC could break above $85,500 with volume. First target: $87,400. If it breaks through, next target: $89,000. If there’s a weak breakout or tech stocks turn bearish again, BTC might first dip to clear liquidity around $83,000. If that level fails, the next support is between $81,000 and $82,000. Short-term bias is bullish, but $85,500 is the trigger point. Until BTC breaks above that level with volume, it’s just consolidation. Only after a breakout with strong volume will the real move begin.