Without the U.S. and China leaning against this shock, oil could be $200 a barrel. Hormuz took ~8.3 mb/d of Gulf production offline. China then cut crude demand by ~3.9 mb/d, while U.S./IEA reserve releases added ~3.3 mb/d back into the market. That ~7 mb/d pressure valve is what kept an 8 mb/d supply shock from fully hitting price. And Brent is still ~$100.