The Nasdaq is hovering around 26,939 right now. After hitting a 52-week high of 27,244 on 9/22, it’s been consolidating at the top, and the trend looks strikingly similar to A-shares. In the short term (before the October FOMC meeting), it’s likely to fluctuate between 26,900–27,200 with a cautious bias. The main pressure point is U.S. Treasury yields—after the Fed’s first rate hike in three years this September, the probability of another hike in October has climbed to 71%. The 10-year Treasury yield has surged to 5.22% (the highest since 2007), and the 30-year yield is at 5.50%. High interest rates are directly suppressing tech stock valuations. That said, the fundamentals of AI remain solid (Jensen Huang’s chip sales have doubled, AMD broke $1 trillion, and the big four cloud providers haven’t cut capital expenditures), so the downside is limited. However, there’s internal divergence—storage (Western Digital/SanDisk/ARM) is weakening, while funds are shifting toward application-side players like Meta, which have tangible products. In short: the Nasdaq’s issue isn’t about whether it *can* rise, but whether Treasury yields *will allow* it to rise. Watching the 10-year Treasury yield is more useful than watching the index itself. If it pulls back below 26,500 and Treasury yields stop hitting new highs, NVIDIA/AMD/TSMC will be better entry points. For now, avoid storage and optical modules.