Divide the net holdings of LTH by the net holdings of STH to get the long-term/short-term holder supply ratio. This ratio reflects the current market supply and demand to some extent. Looking at the past three cycles in the chart: In 2015-16 and 2019, the LTH/STH ratio decreased; meaning LTHs were primarily distributing, while STHs were actively accumulating. This indicates that the market was driven by new demand, pushing prices higher. In 2022-23, the LTH/STH ratio increased; meaning LTHs were primarily accumulating, and more STHs transitioned into LTHs after holding for a certain period. This suggests a phase of "low selling, low buying," characterized by liquidity scarcity. When we combine this with price action, both scenarios show an upward trend. However, the former is driven by strong demand, while the latter is simply due to reduced selling pressure. Currently, we resemble the former — new demand entering the market, driving prices higher. Following this logic, let’s look at Chart 2: If we split the market action in August and September into two phases, it’s clear that the "intensity" of the second phase is significantly weaker than the first. The liquidity between LTHs and STHs has started to decline. Whether this decline continues will be the key factor in determining the strength of the trend. If this pattern persists, BTC’s subsequent price action may not move as quickly or strongly as it did in the first phase. In other words, the $85k-$100k price range might take longer to reach. This might not align with the expectations of some folks who believe BTC can rally quickly in the short term and even break past previous highs. While I’m an optimist, I’m not blindly optimistic about this particular point.