Phyrex
Phyrex|Sep 25, 2026 08:05
Unofficial data calculation: The $351.6 million stolen by Bitget this time is approximately equivalent to eight months of profits Let's start with the conclusion: After the theft of Bitget, I cross calculated the data from Coinbase, Bybit, and Bitget together and estimated that Bitget's current annual profit is approximately $530 million to $550 million. The $351.6 million involved this time is equivalent to 64% to 66% of the annual profit, which is roughly equivalent to 7.7-7.9 months. The above data are my personal estimates and do not represent official data. Here is the process of my calculation: In 2025, Bybit was stolen for approximately $1.46 billion, and Ben publicly stated that this amount was roughly equivalent to Bybit's annual profits. So we can put Bybit's annual profit in the previous market round around 1.46 billion to 1.5 billion US dollars. Then use Coinbase's public financial report to adjust the current market environment. Coinbase's trading revenue in 2024 was $3.986 billion, with only $599 million remaining by the second quarter of 2026. According to the annualized second quarter, it is approximately $2.396 billion, equivalent to 60.1% of 2024. That is to say, if we use Coinbase's revenue changes to represent the exchange's current profitability relative to 2024, then Bybit's approximately $1.5 billion profit from that year would probably still have: 1.5 billion x 60.1%=902 million US dollars Next, we will compare the current scale of Bybit and Bitget. According to TokenInsight, the trading volume of the entire exchange market in the second quarter of this year was approximately $16.5 trillion. Bybit has a market share of 9.81%, corresponding to a trading volume of approximately $1.62 trillion. Bitget's trading volume during the same period was approximately 984 billion US dollars, equivalent to 60.8% of Bybit's. The business structures of the two companies are relatively similar, with Bybit accounting for about 75% of its trading volume in the second quarter from derivatives and Bitget accounting for about 79%. Finally, it is: 1.5 billion x 60.1% x 60.8% ≈ 548 million US dollars If calculated based on the actual $1.46 billion stolen by Bybit, it is: 1.46 billion x 60.1% x 60.8% ≈ 533 million US dollars Therefore, I will temporarily estimate Bitget's current annual profit at $530 million to $550 million. Corresponding to the loss of 351.6 million US dollars this time: 3.516 ÷ 5.48 = 64.2% That's about 7.7 months of profit. Even considering the differences in fees, rebates, marketing costs, and employee costs between the two companies, with a 20% fluctuation in the final result, Bitget's annual profit is approximately $430 million to $660 million. Based on this calculation, the corresponding profit period for this loss is approximately 6.4-9.8 months. So currently, using public data to push, I would understand the recent Bitget theft as a loss of approximately eight months' profits. This amount can be included in Bitget's past market investment to draw the conclusion: During its collaboration with Messi, Bitget announced a $20 million investment in marketing campaigns and user rewards. The loss of 351.6 million US dollars this time is equivalent to 17.6 marketing plans worth 20 million US dollars. So $351.6 million spent on Bitget's own brand investment over the past few years is already a very exaggerated number. From this perspective, this cannot be considered a 'small loss'. So at present, I would prefer to describe the degree of loss as having already hurt one's muscles, but for now, it cannot be said to be bone breaking. I hope Bitget can safely navigate through this incident and open withdrawals as soon as possible. This kind of attack on the exchange may be someone else.
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