Last time, the Bybit hack didn’t have much direct impact on BTC. It just happened to coincide with a period when market demand was starting to weaken, amplifying the effect. The main drivers behind BTC’s sharp drop were macro risk-off sentiment triggered by tariffs and record-breaking ETF outflows (single-day outflows hit $1.14 billion). This time, the amount stolen from Bitget is only a quarter of what was stolen from Bybit, and BTC isn’t included in the stolen assets. So the direct impact on BTC is likely to be smaller than the Bybit incident. (According to the stolen asset details published by Lookonchain, there are 9 assets involved: XRP, ETH, USDT, USDC, USD₮0, XAUt, BNB, AVAX, and TRX.) We can use BGB as the most direct risk indicator for this event. Its price is only 3-5% lower than before the hack, which shows that the market still believes Bitget can absorb all the losses from this incident. Bitget’s official statement claims that its user protection fund can fully cover the losses. This fund consists of 5,500 BTC spread across three addresses. Even if they sell this BTC to buy back XRP and ETH to restore 1:1 redemption, the $350 million scale would only account for about 1% of BTC’s daily trading volume. Therefore, in my personal opinion, it’s unlikely that this unexpected event alone will change BTC’s trend. However, there’s one detail worth noting: Bybit didn’t suspend withdrawals at the time and processed over 350,000 withdrawal requests within 10 hours, with the panic being absorbed on the first day. Bitget, on the other hand, chose to pause withdrawals, while deposits and trading remain unaffected. This means the stress test for withdrawal pressure has been postponed until withdrawals resume.