**[Oxford Economics Warns U.S. Economic Indicators Have Fallen into Recession Territory, but AI Investment and Consumer Resilience Still Provide Support]** According to a report by Golden Finance on September 25, Oxford Economics stated that its U.S. business cycle indicator has fallen into recession territory due to rising energy prices squeezing real household incomes and a slowdown in immigration weakening employment trend growth. However, the institution also questioned whether this indicator truly signals an economic recession. Oxford Economics pointed out that current U.S. productivity growth remains robust, and the wealth effect is driving an increase in consumer spending. These factors may indicate that the economy has not entered a typical recession phase. The institution added that U.S. households have not yet exhibited downgraded consumption behavior, which typically occurs in the lead-up to a recession and during the recovery phase afterward. Additionally, the construction of artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, elevated corporate profit margins, and tax reduction policies continue to support corporate investment. Despite ongoing tariff policies and policy uncertainties, these factors are providing some buffer for U.S. economic growth.