The recent rapid rise in the yield of US treasury bond bonds is alarming, but it is more like the "supply shock+high interest rate repricing" in 2022-2023, rather than the bond market being out of control. The core issue is not whether the 10-year yield has exceeded 5%, but rather that the market has not yet seen a clear mechanism to terminate the sell-off. The current high oil prices and the resilience of US economic data have limited room for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. At the same time, fiscal financing, AI, and data center capital expenditures are all competing for long-term funds, further raising real interest rates and term premiums. In this environment, even if the yield is already high, as long as the economy and credit system can withstand it, the market will continue to seek higher equilibrium interest rates. There are usually two ways to end the sale of such bonds: one is when there is a significant external interruption, such as rapid deterioration of employment, soaring credit spreads, deleveraging of risky assets, or liquidity pressure on financial institutions; Secondly, the market has formed a consensus that the yield is already high enough, and long-term funds have begun to actively increase their duration. At present, neither of these signals is clear enough. Therefore, the more important thing is not to guess whether the 10-year term will end up at 5.2% or 5.4%, but to observe whether high interest rates begin to trigger credit deterioration and non-linear tightening of financial conditions. The former is still priced normally, while the latter means a real market rupture.