Three dimensional integrated trading system | Observation and analysis of BTC's latest market trends in the evening ----Can the expected bottom of 80K still come ❓ ️ My friends, I have been observing the price trend of Bitcoin because this correction is only a healthy correction and an opportunity to intervene in the bull market, and the price will not fall deeply. After the opening of the US stock market, ETF institutions began to buy BTC again. Today, the price dropped to around 82800 and has already fallen to the strong support level of around 83K below, leaving little room for the expected target price of 80K. The price around 84000 is currently quite uncertain, and the long position is not strong. The giant whale is watching ..... Firstly, 84K-84.5K is a cost intensive area for long-term holders. According to Glassnode data, the supply cost of a large number of long-term holders is concentrated in the range of 84K-84.5K US dollars. This is not just any number, it is a real densely packed chain of chips. As long as the price can remain above this range, there is a natural buying power below. Secondly, ETF institutions are still flowing in. Despite the price dropping from 87K to 82.8K, the US spot Bitcoin ETF still saw a net inflow for the fifth consecutive day, with a single day inflow of $347 million on September 23 and a cumulative inflow of approximately $2.65 billion over five days. This indicates that the institution is not panicking and is still buying, and is still buying now. Furthermore, the funds with long leverage have already been cleared for one round. BTC open contracts on Hyperliquid have decreased by 20.77%, and funding rates have also cooled down. This is not a new bearish attack, it is the liquidation of the leveraged bulls who previously pursued high prices. The process of deleveraging is usually 'stop as soon as it's cleared', rather than 'the clearer, the stronger'. It's not impossible for BTC to fall to 80K, but the probability has decreased slightly. The liquidation scale today indicates that the bulls are very crowded. In the past 24 hours, the total settlement of the cryptocurrency market was 617 million US dollars, of which 546 million were from long positions. BTC cleared 116 million in a single hour, with multiple orders accounting for 97.66%. Seven whale addresses on Hyperliquid have been repeatedly liquidated. This indicates that there were too many people who went long before, and once it falls, it will trigger a chain reaction. Macro pressure is real. The yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds has exceeded 5.12%, the highest since 2007. The oil price remains above $103, and inflationary pressure has not been relieved. As long as the yield continues to rise, BTC as an interest free asset will be suppressed. The market only sets a price of 20% for 80K. According to predicted market data, the market believes that the probability of falling below $80000 by the end of September is only 20%, and the probability of falling below $82500 is 49%. The market also considers 80K as a low probability event. Xiaolong's core judgment I think the probability of short-term price fluctuations between 82K-85K is the highest, and today's lowest of 82800 has already tested the support below. If 84K is effectively breached, the next level of support will be at 81K-82K. 80K may only be tested in the event of new macro negative factors, such as sudden increase in expectations of a rate hike in October or another surge in oil prices. Today, 546 million long positions have been cleared, and a portion of leverage risk has been released. The panic greed index is 71, and the market sentiment is still 'greedy', indicating that it has not yet reached the level of 'panic cutting meat'. If emotions shift from greed to panic, and the 80K test is truly possible, then it is time to enter the market and buy the bottom! Let both long and short sides play for a while, and then patiently wait for one or two more days to see.