摸鱼局长 | MoyuChief|Sep 24, 2026 12:28
Using USDC does not mean understanding CRCL
By following the stablecoin track, it is easy to feel that the more USDC is used, the more money Circle will make.
But if the reserve yield decreases, how much does the size of USDC need to grow to offset this impact?
I asked CRCL this question during my experience with Bitget's AI investment research assistant Gets Agent 2.0, and asked it to combine financial reports and valuations to break down the relationship between USDC size, reserve returns, and distribution costs.
The most intuitive answer is this set of scenario calculations.
Based on its 3.48% reserve yield, assuming all other conditions remain unchanged and the yield decreases by 50 basis points, the average size of USDC needs to grow by about 16.8% to maintain its original reserve income; If it drops by 100 basis points, the required growth rate would reach about 40.3%.
It also reminds us that maintaining reserve income does not equal maintaining net profit, and factors such as distribution costs and operating expenses can also affect final profitability.
This turns the question of 'a decrease in yield will affect Circle' into a sustainable one, can the actual growth of USDC cover this gap?
Then, I extended the observation period to six months. The idea given by the VNet agent is to look down at reserve income, distribution costs, operating profit, cash flow, and valuation from the average USDC circulation.
This also makes me more clear that when studying CRCL, besides looking at the growth of USDC scale, we also need to consider how much money the growth can ultimately leave behind.
In the future, when I see new collaborations, I will ask further questions about how much revenue can be contributed by the new scale and how much channel cost will be required? If USDC continues to grow but profits cannot keep up, it is necessary to re-examine the bullish logic.
In this experience, the most helpful thing for me was that I broke down a broad problem into specific calculations and follow-up observation directions. Looking at Circle's financial report again, it becomes clearer which changes to focus on.
For friends who want to extend their research into the US stock market from Crypto, they can try the targets they are interested in. By asking specific questions and then questioning the basis and risks, it is easier to see if it can help with one's research.
Update to the latest version of the Bitget App, click on the floating entrance on the homepage, or go to "Homepage → More → Tools → Gets Agent" to experience it. @Bitget_zh
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