Banxia Investment Li Bei: AI capital expenditure may peak in the middle of next year, with the risk of a second round of decline BlockBeats reported that on September 24, Li Bei, a well-known hedge fund manager in China and founder of Shanghai Banxia Investment, warned about the risk of AI foam in an exclusive interview with Tencent Finance. Its judgment is that although overseas AI capital expenditures are still growing, the quarterly growth rate may peak in the middle of next year. Previously, cloud manufacturers raised their investment based on the assumption that the AI model revenue grew at a high speed and linearly. Extrapolating according to the trend of the first quarter, the model revenue at the end of this year totaled about 500 billion yuan, and will exceed 1 trillion yuan in the next year and the year after. Matching with the capital expenditure of more than 100 billion yuan in the current year does not count as a foam. But in fact, ARR growth has significantly slowed down in the second quarter. Li Bei pointed out that the adjustment of the AI sector since July is not a "Davis double kill", but a decline in valuation. The market still recognizes a significant increase in profits in 2027, but if ARR does not rise, investment levels will not be sustainable, and capital expenditures are likely to peak in 2027. Even if they do not peak in 2027, they will peak in 2028. Li Bei believes that the "second wave of decline" in AI will only occur when capital expenditures truly peak and profit expectations begin to decline, possibly in the middle of next year. When the AI boom recedes, the US economy declines, US bond rates fall, and the US dollar depreciates, China's consumer sector may instead become a "desert oasis" for global assets. [Original link]