Haotian|Sep 24, 2026 03:53
Recently, there have been few updates. I went on a business trip to Shanghai and attended a banquet organized by ETHShanghai and @ xhunt.ai. During this period, I met some friends and shared my insights on communication here:
1) The era of VC led altcoins is going to be completely over. The soft RUG behavior in a16z's terrible Portofolio, as well as some deserters who did not survive the encryption winter and transformed into AI, all confirm that the model of VC dominating the first level and then relying on high growth to release chips and exit after reaching the second level in the previous cycle is not feasible and sustainable, which indirectly leads to the bankruptcy or embarrassing withdrawal of a large number of VCs;
2) The barbaric growth stage of the widespread rise of counterfeit currencies in the past has also passed. The outstanding performance of altcoins such as HYPE, ZEC, LIT, NEAR, UNI, etc. seen in this cycle is just a microcosm, indicating that the proportion of altcoins taking off again may be 10:90, and the takeoff of individual altcoins will step on the corpses of most people's altcoins. This is the result of the forest law of survival of the fittest, and it is also a necessary path for the encryption track to eliminate falsehood and preserve truth;
3) The opportunities on the chain level will be infinitely magnified. Although the Pump style launch pad model has made the cost of issuing coins almost zero, and has also fueled the suicidal backlash of conspiracy groups and PVP culture, the emergence of variant innovative launch pads such as Pons, Long, STONK, HOOKR, etc., and their ability to lead this wave of on chain innovation, shows that opportunities still lie on the chain, both for retail investors and for those VC companies that have been expelled. To achieve high growth at the first level, everyone has to choose a target in the same trench, accompany growth, and then launch a comeback;
4) Perp DEX is the largest Mass Adoption application. The killer applications and mass adoption that the encryption industry has been chasing for two or three cycles have actually come a long time ago, and the answer is the version child: HYPE; Due to the innovative trading experience of PerpDEX combined with the trend of tokenizing assets on the blockchain, it will become the main channel for acquiring TradFi assets and incremental users. With the arrival of the era of large contracts, CEX, which is dominated by spot trading, will be completely surpassed;
5) There are many dark horses hidden in the privacy and compliance track. The performance of ZEC in this round is by no means accidental. The narrative of quantum computing resistance and the implementation of AI Agent applications have made encrypted Infra a necessary infrastructure. Even under innovation exemptions, the influx of large amounts of institutional funds for privacy, traceability, security requirements, and more has provided a living soil and repricing window for some projects that can truly provide solutions;
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