律动BlockBeats|Sep 24, 2026 02:33
[Gold Falls Below $4,300, TD Securities and BMO Still Expect $5,000 by 2027]
BlockBeats News, September 24: Gold recently fell below $4,300 per ounce, pressured by a stronger dollar, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and the Federal Reserve's resumption of rate hikes. However, TD Securities and BMO Capital Markets both believe that medium- to long-term demand for gold remains resilient and expect gold prices to surpass $5,000 again by 2027.
Ryan McKay, Senior Commodity Strategist at TD Securities, stated that the traditional negative correlation between gold and real interest rates is weakening. Geopolitical risks, de-dollarization, concerns over fiscal sustainability, and currency depreciation risks may continue to support gold demand. TD Securities predicts that gold will surpass $5,000 again by 2027.
In terms of capital flows, TD Securities estimates that global gold ETFs have collectively added approximately 6.3 million ounces since July, while central banks have been purchasing nearly 70 tons of gold per month based on a three-month moving average. The institution believes that if investment demand continues to recover, the gold market still has room to absorb further capital.
BMO also pointed out that global physical gold demand is improving, supported by India's wedding season, China's gold imports, and ETF inflows. Over the past week, global gold ETFs attracted approximately $4.2 billion in inflows, while China's net imports of non-monetary gold in August increased by 48% year-on-year to 124.5 tons.
BMO believes that gold's ability to remain near $4,300 to $4,400 despite the simultaneous rise in the dollar and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields indicates that its traditional relationship with bond yields is weakening. The bank expects gold prices to surpass $5,000 again in the first quarter of 2027 but notes that in the short term, attention should be paid to U.S.-China talks and U.S. core PCE inflation data.
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