陈桂林
陈桂林|9月 24, 2026 02:19
After carefully considering a range of options (including their current positions, volatility, risk/reward ratios, etc.), covering both U.S. stocks and the crypto space, I’ve decided to go with Ethereum. Ethereum ($ETH) has been moving within very clear ranges: Below $2200 is the weak zone; $2100-$2800 is the middle zone; above $2800 is the strong zone. Right now, it’s transitioning from the weak zone into the middle zone. Based on historical patterns, once Ethereum breaks above $2800 effectively, it usually enters an accelerated rally. So, for this operation: I’m taking out 10% of profits, pricing in a potential 10% loss, and opening an Ethereum position. The entry price for this position is $2400. Currently, I’m treating this position as a "faith-based" trade (a mid-term holding in my flexible portfolio). As for whether to add to the position or when to do so, I’ll need to observe further because there are two key questions to consider: 1. At the current price—should I add between now and $2400? If I don’t, will it definitely drop to $2400? Will it definitely break below $2400? 2. Between $2200-$2400, if there’s an opportunity, that’s undoubtedly the most cost-effective range. However, the closer it gets to $2200, the riskier it becomes, because that’s testing the limit. Looking back at Ethereum’s behavior this cycle, it’s been more about sideways movement rather than dropping. If the trend changes, is it a fake-out or a real breakdown? On another note: Bitcoin ($BTC) currently looks like it’s moving in a pattern very similar to the first wave of a 5-wave structure. But when you look at $MSTR, it feels completely different. Following the trend: this round still calls for using profits to take a gamble. The bigger risk lies in missing out entirely.
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