Polymarket is betting on HYPE falling to $75 and rising to $120 at the same time, which one will come first? The probability of HYPE falling to $75 on Polymarket before December 31st this year is about 46%, and the probability of rising to $120 is also about 40% To drop from the current position to $75, a decrease of approximately 20% is required; If it rises to $120, it will need to increase by about 28% The market seems to be betting on both a big drop and a big rise at the same time Supporting the logic of $120 is still Hyperliquid's continuously growing revenue and repurchase ability Over the past 30 days, the Assistance Fund has actually purchased approximately 676400 HYPEs, averaging around 22600 per day Based on the current price of $93.83, this is equivalent to approximately $2.11 million in token purchases per day and approximately $63.47 million in the past 30 days The average purchase cost for repurchase positions tracked from May 2025 is approximately $41.43. Based on a HYPE price of approximately $93.57, the unrealized earnings of this position are estimated to be around $1.37 billion, with a return rate of approximately 125.8% That is to say, the Assistance Fund is not only continuing to repurchase, but the HYPE it previously purchased has also accumulated huge book profits In addition to repurchase, Hyperliquid also has a HYPE consumption path, priority fee In the past 7 days, Priority has contributed approximately 5.5% of the revenue from the Hyperliquid protocol; The latest day accounted for 7.32%, with an average of about 5.90% in the past 14 days and an average of about 5.51% in the past 30 days If simplified at the current rate, the priority consumption scale in the next 12 months may reach about 49.4 million US dollars, corresponding to about 527800 HYPEs The Assistance Fund purchases HYPE from the market using protocol fees and then removes the purchased tokens from circulation Priority refers to the direct generation of new fees and HYPE consumption by users in order to obtain service priority One creates sustained buying demand, while the other expands the actual usage demand of the token According to materials previously submitted to the SEC by Hyperliquid Strategies, the Hyperliquid ecosystem has generated approximately $945 million in transaction fees and value accumulation in the past 12 months ending June 30th This explains why the market is willing to continue betting on $120 But $75 is also not impossible When HYPE approached $94, based on the upper limit of about 1 billion tokens, the fully diluted valuation was already close to $94 billion The market is pricing Hyperliquid ahead of schedule to continue expanding trading volume, repurchase scale, and expectations of financial market boundaries. Once the overall market rebounds, trading volume decreases, or high leverage positions are concentrated and closed, HYPE may still experience a rapid drawdown of around 20% HYPE is constantly reaching new highs Does the road to $120 really have to go through $75 first HYPE Hyperliquid Polymarket repurchases DeFi