Bill The Investor
Bill The Investor|Sep 23, 2026 23:07
The 10-year US Treasury bond just broke 5.11%, reaching a new high in 2019, and BTC followed suit today with a 2% drop. The traditional logic is simple: with a risk-free return of 5%, who is still in a hurry to buy zero interest coins? Short term pressure is normal. 5% is a pain point for the Ministry of Finance. As soon as Yellen's yield approached this point, she immediately issued short-term bonds and withdrew RRP liquidity, indirectly printing money, and BTC subsequently rebounded sharply. Now Besent is facing the same debt bill. Combined with this year's interest rate hike path: the Federal Reserve has just added 25bp to 3.75-4%, and the median of the dot plot points to another increase at the end of the year (4.1%). 16/18 officials feel that it is still necessary to increase. After the PMI exploded today, the pricing for another round in October has already exceeded 70%. The problem is that the debt scale is already so large that raising interest rates does not mean withdrawing liquidity. Bank reserves and treasury bond bond holders get higher interest rates, and money will continue to flow into financial assets. Raising interest rates is stimulating in a high debt environment and is currently being implemented. So the current pattern is that a 5% yield shock is a short-term shock, but this position itself is a signal that policies are forced to increase liquidity operations. The price can fall first, but the quantity will eventually win. Add warehouse, Sao Nian.
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