彼得兔|Sep 23, 2026 13:59
Important BTC Update ❗ How did I recognize that this round of adjustment ended prematurely?
In our tweet on September 18th, we mentioned that once BTC breaks through and stabilizes at 80000, the adjustment for the entire rise from 57800 to 82300 can be confirmed to have ended on the right-hand side.
The situation of 'adjustment ending prematurely before reaching the market's generally expected level' is not unfamiliar. As shown in Figure 1, we have already experienced an almost identical structure in 2024.
On the evening of September 18th, BTC not only broke through and stabilized at 80000, but also broke through the Gann angle line 2/1 corresponding to the entire decline from 126200 to 57800, and completed a support resistance swap after breaking through.
The simultaneous appearance of two signals made me more confident that the adjustment had ended earlier.
So in my opinion, getting on the car here is not just about chasing high, but rather a very standard opportunity on the right side after confirming the trend. So on September 19th, we got on board BTC, ETH, CRCL, MSTR, and a bunch of altcoins.
In the video on September 20th, I once again expressed this viewpoint clearly and explained the complete logic behind it.
Since late June, I have emphasized more than once that finding opportunities to build warehouses in batches is more important than guessing where the lowest point is. It is based on the judgment of the overall trend that even if there are signs of a pullback after rising to 82300, we have not reduced our spot positions.
Since the confirmation signal on the right side has already appeared, why not go up? The reason is also very simple. For most people, the price for this position from September 18th to 20th is already 'too high'. Everyone wants to wait for a lower point.
But sometimes the cruelest part of the market is here: real good opportunities often don't come at a price that everyone thinks is reasonable.
The price that everyone is waiting for may not necessarily arrive; Everyone's path may not necessarily lead to the right direction.
Figure 3 excerpts a passage from the afterword of Yu Hua's "Brothers", which I think is very suitable for giving to friends who have fallen short of the market due to waiting for "lower prices" this time.
As shown in Figure 4, the nearest pressure level above is 89600. At present, there is still momentum for the upward trend because as long as it does not fall below 84500, this upward trend has not yet ended, and all the declines during this period are only small-scale corrections in the upward process.
Only when it falls below 84500, it is considered a pullback against 74968 upward movements. Finding the endpoint above the support level of 82600-83400 is a strong pullback. Breaking below here and not being able to retract may be a complex callback. But regardless of the type, even if there is a subsequent pullback, it will still rise after finding the endpoint of the pullback.
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