Three Dimensional Integrated Trading System | BTC Evening Latest Market (3/3): Structural Form and Core Judgment ——There is a demand for a healthy correction in BTC prices, with a 60% probability of a significant drop and correction! Structural form: After breaking through, the high-level contraction consolidation, 84500 is a short-term watershed. BTC has fallen from its high point of 87381 to around 85500 today, with the low point still rising (74968 → 84532 → 85093). If you can't break 83339 by stepping back, the breakthrough is still effective. The current price is below the resistance of 86900 (medium cycle Fib 3.0), with short-term volume consolidation. Key positions: The resistance above is 86900, and after breaking through, it looks like 89189. Below support 84500 (pre breakthrough consolidation platform), further down 82103, this is the clearing cluster, with about 1.762 billion US dollars of long position clearing waiting to be triggered. As long as 83339 does not break, the structure of a fully launched bull market remains effective. Of course, we do not rule out the possibility of the main force of bears launching a fierce attack in the future, suppressing prices below 82000 and liquidating $1.762 billion of long positions. Xiaolong's core judgment: There are three clues in today's market. Firstly, after a breakthrough in volume, there will be a consolidation of volume, with bulls dominating but short-term momentum weakening. After the liquidation of the bears, their vitality was greatly damaged, but on chain data shows that new bears are entering the market. At the same time, the volume of long positions has sharply decreased, and ETF institutions have seen large net inflows for two consecutive days, resulting in a deviation between the volume and the inflow of ETF funds, which is a major hidden danger. Secondly, the continuous large inflow of ETFs, with a total of about 2.3 billion US dollars in four days, is currently the most clear buying force. Giant Whale stopped increasing its holdings in September, and spot demand has not yet turned positive. Buying ETFs and not buying whales is a structural divergence that deserves caution. Thirdly, the long short ratio of derivatives tends to be bearish, and bearish funds are still being deployed, forming a contrast with the surface phenomenon of 'bearish liquidation'. Core judgment: The structure of a fully launched bull market has not broken, but there is a short-term demand for a downward correction. 84500 is a short-term watershed, if held, it will fluctuate and accumulate momentum, and if it falls below, it will test the clearing cluster near 82K. ETF inflow is the only core support, and once ETF funds turn to outflow, a downward correction is inevitable. Through multidimensional analysis and judgment, the probability of a subsequent Bitcoin price decline and correction is 60%. First, let's take a look at the first target price of 84500 falling, the second target price around 83500, and the extreme decline and correction price above 80K, which means clearing about 1.762 billion US dollars of long funds and then rising again. Every pullback is a buying opportunity, patiently wait for the Bitcoin price to fall and retrace to 83.5K!