律动BlockBeats|Sep 23, 2026 04:17
[Wall Street Traders Increase Hedging to Guard Against Fed Rate Hikes Falling Short of Expectations]
BlockBeats News, September 23: Current interest rate swap pricing indicates that the market expects the Federal Reserve to implement three 0.25 percentage point rate hikes by June next year. Some traders are concerned that the actual rate hikes may be fewer ("shallow rate hike cycle") and are therefore increasing protective positions through SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate)-related options. Over the past week, demand for put options on March 2027 SOFR options has risen significantly, indicating that traders are hedging against the risk of a "less hawkish Fed."
Analysts point out that rising oil prices due to Iran-related conflicts and long-term U.S. Treasury yields surpassing 5% are seen by some as a "tax" on economic growth, which could ultimately limit the Fed's room for rate hikes. Moreover, if economic slowdown coincides with easing tensions in the Middle East, the Fed may end up raising rates fewer times than currently priced in by the market.
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