金十数据|Sep 23, 2026 00:49
[Galaxy Securities: Fed Rate Hike Elevates Risk-Free Rate, AI Enters Rational Validation Phase]
Jin10 News, September 23 – According to a research report by Galaxy Securities, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16, marking the first rate hike since July 2023.
On the denominator side, the systemic upward shift in the risk-free rate center is not limited to policy rates. For equity assets, the rise in discount rates primarily compresses price-to-earnings ratios, especially for high-valuation growth stocks that rely on long-term cash flows.
On the numerator side, the AI narrative has not cooled down, and the industry remains highly prosperous. However, the pricing logic has shifted from "long-term vision" to "current realization."
On the first trading day after the rate hike, segments of the computing power industry chain such as storage, CPUs, foundries, and optical interconnects generally outperformed. Strong current profitability and short investment return cycles make these segments relatively insensitive to the upward movement of denominator-side interest rates.
The divergence has not ended, and the pricing framework is undergoing a transition. Computing power hardware with current cash flows and performance validation (advanced processes, storage, optical interconnects, equipment materials) benefits from the exhaustion of negative factors. In contrast, targets reliant on long-term narratives and lacking profit support continue to be squeezed out, as the AI industry enters a rational validation phase.
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