𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂
𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂|Sep 22, 2026 21:48
The U.S. knows there is only one way to revitalize its industrial capacity, and it requires exorcising China from its supply chains. It also realizes that the only way the West can accomplish something similar as a group requires exorcising China from its collective supply chains. All this is necessary because China will not alter its industrial model, and its place at the center of global manufacturing can no longer be tolerated by the hegemon. So the U.S. is trying to convince its partners, albeit coarsely and with applied leverage, to do the same. Its opening salvos have been a combo of sticks (tariffs and threats) and carrots (preferential access to U.S. markets). Results have been mixed. This has become a matter of national strategy and of sovereignty not just individually, but as an economic bloc of nations. Some of America's partners (Canada and EU) are still committed to the old globalist vision, and may not change their minds until more discomfort is felt. There is no place for campfires and kumbaya in the mercantilist world of economic statecraft, and nothing catalyzes action like poor outcomes. The Draghi report called for €750-€800 billion of additional European investment every year by the end of this decade in order for the continent to achieve its objectives. The West has the potential to unleash an investment boom that no one alive has witnessed before, but all will fail catastrophically if any door is left open for China to compete within it. This is why trade negotiations are so contentious now. The middle powers have not yet accepted that this must happen in order for their plans to be successful. The U.S. already knows. Whether they'll be fruitful in coercing their partners is still anyone's guess.
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