子棋(重生版)|Sep 22, 2026 13:40
How much safety space is left in this round of market when we rush to 87000 knockoffs and start collective price increases?
This is a question that everyone is very concerned about, especially the comrades who step on the air!
I think this round of market has already emerged from the early stage of rebound and entered the stage of breakthrough acceleration and fund diffusion. There is currently no clear signal of a peak, but the most comfortable low level has passed.
Currently, we are roughly in the third step of the entire rebound:
The first step is to clear the panic of 58000-67000 yuan. The market does not believe in the bottom, but the chips are quietly changing hands at a low level.
The second step is to repair the trend of 63000-82000 on Bitcoin: native has re entered the medium to long term moving average, short positions have been replenished, but most people still see the rise as a bear market and withdraw.
The third step is to start chasing the rise of short selling funds from 75000 to 87000. When BTC stabilizes at a high level, the funds will continue to spread to ETH, SOL, and knockoffs, and the profit effect will significantly increase.
But the third step may lead to either the main ascent or the formation of the top stage.
If BTC breaks through 88000 in volume and does not break through 85000, the market will enter the fourth step, and there is a chance to challenge 90000 to 96000 in the future.
On the other hand, if the stock rises and falls back below 82000 yuan, or even falls below 80000 yuan, the crazier the knockoff rally, the more careful it is to be that this is the emotional release at the end of the rebound.
From 126200 to 57800 US dollars, 84000 US dollars correspond to a 38.2% rebound level, and 92000 US dollars correspond to a 50% rebound level. The first hurdle has been broken, and the next 88000-92000 US dollars are the real pressure zone.
The current collective rise in counterfeit stocks indicates that risk appetite is spreading, but BTC's market share is still close to 59%, which is more like a capital outflow after a breakthrough and cannot be directly defined as a comprehensive counterfeit season.
Next, let's just look at a few positions:
Hold on to 83000-84000 US dollars, continue to look at 89000-92000 US dollars;
Falling back to $80000 to $82000 indicates that the breakthrough strength is beginning to weaken;
My strategy remains unchanged: the trend continues to be bullish, but the current odds are no longer cost-effective. In terms of operations, I lean more towards short-term fast in and fast out!
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