wishful_cynic
wishful_cynic|Sep 22, 2026 10:22
weirdly people continue being confused about how exposure and volume calculation works in perps and prediction markets tldr is people are dunking on conventions without understanding that they cannot really offer a consistent alternative that is both informative and makes sense 1) calculating volume based on economic exposure is natural, gives you actionable information, and can be compared to other metrics like open interest. It is also by no means crypto invention, this is how tradfi works too. In contrast it makes very little sense to report collateral as volume as it gives very little information about actual economic activity, nobody cares about this number except for people who come up with conspiracy theories about all volume being fake because its on leverage (🤯). Like I feel dumb even explaining this because its obvious to anyone with basic market structure understanding, but I sadly encountered a number of individuals who were genuinely convicted that is the case so here we are 2) people are also dunking on volume calculation (actually for the same reason in a way!) for prediction markets and I'll admit it is less intuitive (until you actually think more about it). If somebody buys $0.03 cents probability for Jesus returning this year, any prediction market (yes any, all of them are following this convention, not just kalshi!) would report $1 in volume. This bit is unintuitive but only until you understand there is somebody who is selling $0.97 on the other side! He can actually lose 0.97 and that cash is locked So what should we report, $0.03, $0.97 or $1? It kind of makes sense to report $1 because that's the combined financial exposure. It might make sense to report 0.97 because its the maximum p&l from this particular transaction, but this is honestly stratching it. And if you are in favor of reporting 0.03, are we then always reporting the lowest number (up to 0.5?), and more importantly, what information does this give us? At the end of the day you want to know how many contracts are being traded and based on the market make a decision about how much it tells you, so current volume convention makes sense to me personally. Special case (but not really) is parlays/combos - I think I agree that reporting volume in parlays should work on them being a standalone market and just like the Jesus market it doesnt matter, like whats the alternative here exactly, report 0.0003, but then what if He actually returns and ETH goes to $10,000 in 2050 and the poor market maker loses a small fortune on tiny volume? thanks for coming to my volume reporting convention rant
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