Brothers, we have been talking about the Federal Reserve and US dollar interest rates. Today, let's take a different perspective: what will happen to our overseas assets if the Chinese yuan continues to appreciate? Firstly, the conclusion is that the strengthening of the renminbi may have the opposite impact on consumption and overseas investment. Traveling abroad, studying abroad, or purchasing goods priced in US dollars, the same amount of RMB can be exchanged for more US dollars, which may alleviate expenditure pressure. But if you hold US stocks and eventually exchange them for RMB, you can't just look at how much the stocks have risen, you also need to calculate the exchange rate. For example, let's take a purely hypothetical scenario: the US stock market rises by 10%, while the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan falls by 5%. Excluding fees and taxes, the return on the Chinese yuan is about 4.5%, not 10%. So, choosing the right asset does not necessarily mean that the returns after switching back to the local currency will be exactly the same. Is there a long-term basis for the appreciation of the Chinese yuan? Upgrading industries, increasing productivity, and improving investment returns may all provide support. But these factors cannot directly deduce that 'the RMB will only rise and not fall in the future'. The Balassa Samuelson effect mentioned in the picture refers to the relative increase in productivity in the tradable sector, which is transmitted through wages and service prices, driving the appreciation of the real exchange rate. The most confusing thing here is that the appreciation of the real exchange rate does not necessarily mean that the nominal exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar will continue to appreciate. Changes in domestic and international prices can also affect the actual exchange rate. Trade surplus is also not an automatic appreciation button. Whether export enterprises immediately settle foreign exchange after receiving US dollars, whether they have overseas payment needs, and the flow of cross-border funds will all affect the supply and demand of the foreign exchange market. Combined with the interest rate differential between China and the United States, the overall trend of the US dollar, and market expectations, it is difficult to predict the exchange rate through a single logic. For me, studying these is not about guessing the most cost-effective exchange point, but about considering assets and future expenses together. If you mainly use Chinese yuan in daily life, you should keep enough cash in Chinese yuan; There will be definite US dollar expenditures in the future, which can be prepared in batches according to the schedule. Investing in overseas assets also requires accepting fluctuations in both asset prices and exchange rates. Especially don't liquidate your overseas assets just because you are optimistic about the appreciation of the Chinese yuan; Don't exchange all your living allowance for US dollars just because you're worried about depreciation. Long term configuration should allow for self judgment errors. More important than guessing the exchange rate correctly is that when money is needed, there is no need to be forced to exchange or sell it.