qinbafrank|Sep 21, 2026 05:40
If oil prices stay stable, the market won't have issues either. The logic here is: if oil prices remain steady, U.S. Treasury yields are unlikely to face short-term problems. The market is trading on the possibility of oil prices and long-term bond yields peaking, as industry fundamentals are still strong. Once macro disturbances temporarily fade, sentiment will naturally continue to recover during this period.
Anthropic's IPO has been postponed to November, and OpenAI has announced its IPO won't happen until 2027. On one hand, this reduces concerns about IPOs draining liquidity; on the other hand, Anthropic's delay is due to expectations of strong Q3 performance—they're working hard to deliver results. This is also good news for the market.
Over the weekend, Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary, who is also Mojtaba's representative, Rezaei, proposed seven conditions (three of which include U.S. military ceasefire, lifting the blockade, and unfreezing Iranian assets; the other four remain unclear). Although tensions between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia persist, as long as negotiations are happening, it's positive for the market. Keep an eye on developments during this week's UN General Assembly, including U.S.-Iran-Gulf state talks, and the critical U.S.-China meeting. As mentioned earlier, if oil prices don't spike again, the market will remain stable .
We first discussed this on the 17th, where the market was trading on the possibility of oil prices peaking. As long as oil prices drop, even if Waller continues to sound hawkish, market sentiment can still recover:
https://(x.com)/qinbafrank/status/2100401639865897337?s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A
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