蓝狐
蓝狐|Sep 21, 2026 05:12
We can imagine the future of Ethereum as a true world settlement layer, providing security services for both L1 masters and numerous L2 clones. This is the Starry Ocean, and we believe it will be realized. However, One thing still cannot be ignored: L2 has been freelancing on Ethereum's security premium. Nowadays, the settlement fee submitted by L2 to Ethereum is almost negligible. Not to say, not paying at all, but paying based on the market price of the blob/batch that has been flattened and expanded, this "rent" is relatively low compared to L2's own income, almost negligible. There is a concept that is easily confused: dividing into scale and proportion is not the same thing. The current situation is payment by byte and batch. If we want to make the settlement layer a true value capture, So, whether L2 earns $100 a day or $10 million, We need to consider changing pricing from "byte fees" to being tied to economic scale, such as 10% -20% of net protocol revenue. Why aren't public blockchains being released now? Building L2 and renting Ethereum security is much more enjoyable than building your own public chain. Previously, building an L1 valuation may have seemed higher, but the leeks are tired of this hollow narrative and are now moving towards chains with practical applications. In the future, there will be more and more L2 chains and fewer and fewer L1 public chains. The premise is that these L2 still leave the finality and data availability in Ethereum, which is generally advantageous for Ethereum's settlement layer position, but it does not mean that Ethereum should give away the security premium for nothing. To what extent have you been freelancing now? As of September 20, 2026, the total settlement fees (batch/proof/blob) paid by approximately 25 L2 transactions tracked by growthepie to the Ethereum mainnet are approximately: Approximately $1900 on the same day Approximately 55700 US dollars in the past 30 days Approximately 143900 US dollars in the past 90 days Accumulated approximately 335 million US dollars Compared to the other side: Robinhood Chain incurred a daily user transaction fee of approximately $4.5 million on September 3, 2026, and paid Ethereum approximately $398 on the same day, with a daily ratio of approximately 1:111000. In the past 30 days, it has paid L1 approximately $19000, which is currently the largest contributor, but still only a fraction of its revenue. Base had a 30 day window of approximately 292 million operations and paid L1 approximately $8800. Dune caliber: Base will return approximately 0.24% of its monthly revenue to L1 in May 2026. Growthepie Economic Page's one-year scale caliber: L2 on chain revenue is about 92 million US dollars, L1 cost is about 1.56 million US dollars, and retention rate is about 98.6%. After Ethereum Dencun, the expansion of blob production capacity is faster than the real data demand of L2, and the rent is flattened; Pectra/Fusaka has added another layer of capacity. The business model of L2 becomes: the revenue of L2 block space (execution fee, priority fee, congestion premium) minus almost negligible DA cost is approximately equal to the sequencer profit. In addition, most of the shares that are currently distributed are not to Ethereum, but to the technology stack. For example, OP Superchain has revenue or net profit that is deducted to the Collective; Robinhood Chain allocates 10% of its net protocol revenue to the Arbitrarum ecosystem based on Arbitrarum Expansion, not ETH L1. The conclusion is: Ethereum sells finality and security, while the stack protocol sells software licenses. The latter has already been written into a commission contract, while the former is still receiving payment according to the flattened byte fee. The rarest thing, but with the weakest pricing power. Is this reasonable? Obviously unreasonable. In the long run, I am confident in two points. One is that as more and more real businesses choose to hang the finality on Ethereum, the L1 public chain narrative becomes empty, which is increasingly advantageous for the position of the settlement layer in the Ethereum world; Secondly, this position has not been converted into a corresponding value capture. L2 eats the execution profit very cleanly, while L1 only accepts a DA fraction flattened by capacity expansion, which cannot be described as pitiful. This will weaken the fundamentals of ETH as a productive asset and deflationary narrative; At present, the security budget mainly relies on issuance and L1 execution fees. However, if the settlement layer's revenue does not grow with the scale of its assets in the long run, security will become increasingly diluted and cannot be paid for by protected economic activities. The way out for Ethereum is: In addition to meeting the demand for blob/DA to catch up with production capacity, the rent has returned from being "negligible" to a meaningful proportion; What still needs to be done is, Pricing closer to scale linkage appears at the protocol layer (mandatory contribution based on net protocol revenue, minimum settlement fee based on proof frequency, forcing more high-value states to remain in L1); Or it could make ETH not only the default gas on L2 (Base/OP/Arb/Robinwood gas is already ETH), but also an irreplaceable collateral, fee, and forced exit asset, It cannot be just an asset that can be used but has a single cost so low that it hardly forms a monetary demand. Otherwise, as the scale of assets on the Ethereum chain increases, the revenue of the settlement layer does not follow suit, making it difficult for ETH to sustain its narrative through protected economic activities. In short, the current trend is generally favorable for Ethereum, but it does not mean that it should be given a free security premium.
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