To be honest, I’m totally confused by the current market trends! A lot of people have been asking me, but I’m not entirely sure either. I can only analyze based on the existing trends, so feel free to use this as a reference and discuss with me! I think $58K is very likely the major bottom, but I can’t confirm if it’s the ultimate cycle bottom yet. Even if it’s not, the real bottom won’t be too far off from $58K! OKX The main bearish phase of the bear market is probably over. The market is now recovering from the bottom and heading toward the bull-bear boundary, but it’s not yet the start of a new major bullish wave. Here are a few questions everyone’s been curious about—let’s take a look and discuss! --- **1. Why is the price rising now?** BTC dropped from $123K to $58K, a pullback of over 50%. Leverage and high-level positions have been cleared out. After that, rate hikes, hawkish dot plots, and regulatory bearish news all landed, yet the price didn’t hit new lows. This indicates selling pressure is fading. Meanwhile, spot ETF buying, unrealized loss recovery, and short covering collectively pushed the price past $80K. --- **2. What stage of the bull-bear cycle are we in now?** I’m leaning toward “mid-term recovery after the main bearish phase of the bear market,” rather than a new bull market. ETFs have changed the shape of the bear market but haven’t eliminated the cycle. In the past, we might have seen 70%-80% crashes; now, it’s more likely to be a 50% pullback, followed by a longer period of consolidation to build a bottom. --- **3. Is $58K the ultimate bottom?** $58K has the conditions to be a bottom, but it’s not confirmed yet. Stablecoins haven’t expanded significantly, and corporate treasury buying remains weak, indicating insufficient new liquidity. As long as the $62K-$65K range holds, the probability of $58K being the cycle low is high. If this range breaks, we might retest $58K again. --- **4. What’s the outlook for the next six months?** In a high-interest-rate environment, it’s unlikely for BTC to enter a continuous major bullish phase directly. It’s more likely to fluctuate widely between $68K-$95K, with the center of gravity slowly shifting upward. If $76K holds, recovery continues; if $73K breaks, the market weakens again; if $85K stabilizes, we can challenge $90K-$96K; only when the weekly chart breaks above $100K can we confirm the bear market is truly over. --- **In summary:** $58K looks like the bottom, but it hasn’t been fully confirmed by the market yet. $80K is part of the recovery, $85K is the key level, and $100K is the ultimate proof that the bear market is officially over.