Pai 🌲
Pai 🌲|Sep 18, 2026 14:50
After the Fed hiked rates, the craziest rally came from crypto. VIX dropped to 15, and no one's scared. Bitcoin shot straight past $80K in one move. Meanwhile, in U.S. stocks, no one’s getting any dividends. SPY is still sliding, and banks are bleeding even more. Rate hikes were supposed to fatten banks with interest spreads, but instead, they’re falling. On 9/16, I said banks were dropping because the market was betting on a dovish Fed—wrong. The Fed turned out to be more hawkish than I expected. But even after the hike, banks are still falling. This is the market pricing in a recession. I’m betting that the risk-on money from this cycle won’t flow back into U.S. stocks. Crypto and gold have absorbed all the bad news and are rallying hard. U.S. stocks can only watch. Banks are the riskiest—I'm shorting banks. Not shorting the broader market though.
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