TraderS | 缺德道人|9月 18, 2026 13:56
Haven’t written about SPCX alone in a while. Obviously, SPCX has been rebounding steadily recently, but there hasn’t been much buzz, so it kind of faded into the background.
But starting today, we’re entering a high-density event period again.
First, the recent rally is mainly due to front-running trades ahead of the Nasdaq weight adjustment.
- 9/18 is the execution window for the Nasdaq weight adjustment rebalancing, especially during the closing auction.
- 9/21 is the effective date for the new weights, which will take effect at market open.
- 9/22 is the scheduled launch date for Starship 14, but based on the experience with Starship 13, the launch might be delayed or not fully successful.
- 9/24 is the third unlock date, with 319 million shares unlocking.
- 10/9 is the fourth unlock date, again with 319 million shares unlocking.
- Mid-October is the IPO window for Anthropic, which could either drain liquidity, divert funds, or inversely help price xAI.
- Late October is Tesla’s earnings report date.
- 10/26 is the fifth unlock date, with another 319 million shares unlocking.
...
Although the additional demand from this weight adjustment will decrease after 9/18, the existing holdings of index funds won’t automatically sell off because of this. However, if it’s confirmed that the recent rally was driven by front-running funds and there’s no follow-up buying, then a drop might be inevitable.
In short, today might be SPCX’s last shining moment. If it spikes to 160+, it might be a good time to take profits and step off the ride. This level is a key bull-bear dividing line and a psychological threshold.
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