"Three-in-One Trading System | BTC Evening Market Analysis (3/3): Structural Patterns and Core Judgments" --- Limited rebound space, don’t chase the highs! Structural Patterns: Current price is consolidating in a narrow range between 75K-78,500. BTC rebounded from the 75K low to 78,500 and is now oscillating around 78K. 78,500 is short-term resistance; if broken, the target is 79K-80K. Key support below is at 75K. Core Judgments from Xiao Long: There are three clues in today’s market. First, the rebound is driven by short squeezes, not large-scale bullish initiatives. It’s a low-volume rebound, and the probability of continued upward movement is low. Second, on-chain data doesn’t support a breakout with increased volume. ETF inflows are concentrated in IBIT alone, and there’s a dense sell wall from long-term holders at 77K-80K. Third, macro pressures persist. The dot plot indicates one more rate hike this year, and while oil prices have retreated, they’re still above $100. Core Judgment: Low-volume rebound driven by short squeezes, with no follow-through from bullish momentum. On-chain data doesn’t support a breakout with increased volume. 78,500 is the short-term dividing line. I believe the rebound is essentially complete, and the low-volume resistance suggests a high probability of retracing to around 77K. There’s also a chance of further declines to the 73K-75K range. In the current market, the risk-reward ratio and profit-loss ratio for chasing longs are relatively poor.