《Three-Dimensional Trading System｜BTC Evening Market Analysis (2/3): On-Chain Data》 On-Chain Structure: ETF turned to net inflow, but whales are distributing today. On September 17, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of $159.5 million, ending the previous two days of significant outflows. BlackRock's IBIT saw a single-day inflow of $183.7 million, making it the only product with net inflows. Fidelity's FBTC and VanEck's HODL are still experiencing outflows, with inflows highly concentrated in IBIT alone—not a broad-based buying trend. Whales are selling during the rebound. During the recent two-week slow upward trend, large wallet entities have been actively reducing their positions, opting to gain liquidity rather than accumulate for a breakout. Meanwhile, small-scale retail traders are driving localized price recoveries through leveraged derivative contracts, making the market vulnerable to sharp liquidation events. The supply wall above remains dense. Long-term holders have placed a significant number of sell orders between $77,100 and $80,200, forming a dense resistance wall. At the same time, Binance's BTC reserves have risen above 693,000 coins, reaching a two-year high and accounting for approximately 30% of BTC holdings across major trading platforms. On-Chain Judgment: ETF inflows are a positive signal but concentrated in IBIT alone; whales are distributing during the rebound; retail leverage is driving prices; short-term holders' profit buffer is narrowing, and the supply wall above is dense. The on-chain structure does not support a breakout with high volume. The subsequent price rebound is unlikely to be sustainable—don’t chase the highs, wait for a healthy bull market correction.