小龙先生|Sep 18, 2026 12:31
《Three-in-One Trading System|BTC Evening Market Analysis (1/3): Volume》
----Volume Structure: Low-volume rebound, with bullish volume lagging behind. Can the rebound continue?
Today, BTC's price rebounded to a high of around 78,500 and is currently showing a small bullish candlestick with an upper shadow.
The key issue is: this rebound from the 75K low to 78,500 is happening on declining volume.
From the volume bars in the chart below, you can see that the recent 4-hour candlestick volumes are significantly lower than the high-volume levels seen on September 4 and September 16, currently only at 618 BTC/hour, which is a typical low-volume rebound.
The blue bullish volume fluctuation curve in the chart below clearly shows that bullish volume is already declining!
Bearish volume is weakening, but bullish volume hasn’t stepped up.
The price rebound from 75K to 78,500 is mainly driven by short liquidation rather than active bullish buying, indicating that this surge is primarily due to short covering. However, there hasn’t been sustained bullish buying volume, meaning the “fuel” for the rebound is insufficient.
Short-term holders are selling at a loss.
The number of tokens held for less than 155 days flowing into exchanges has risen from 19,400 BTC to 33,100 BTC, with 23,200 BTC arriving at exchanges at a loss—the highest level in a month. This reflects retail-scale positions being liquidated.
Volume Assessment: Low-volume rebound, with short squeezes as the primary driver, but bullish volume hasn’t stepped up. The rebound has limited upside potential, with 78,500 as short-term resistance and 77,500 as immediate support. Volume does not support a breakout, and the sustainability of the rebound is questionable.
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