财经悟空|Sep 18, 2026 02:24
What's the next focus for gold (XAU)?
1. Short-term (1-3 trading days): Digesting post-meeting sentiment, rebound after bearish news is priced in. Don’t chase highs or panic sell.
2. Key factors for mid-term direction: October and November U.S. CPI data + international oil prices.
Waller has made it clear: policy is entirely data-driven. If inflation continues to decline, December rate hike expectations will cool quickly, and gold will recover. If inflation rebounds, gold prices will remain under downward pressure.
Strategy: Don’t chase the short-term rebound. First resistance level is 4380-4405. Once it reaches this range, short-term traders can consider taking partial profits on high-priced positions while keeping low-cost base positions intact.
If gold holds above 4380, it indicates stronger bullish momentum. If it fails to hold, expect continued consolidation and watch for a potential retest of the bottom. Overall, gold is still trending upward in a consolidation pattern. Look for pullbacks—positions below 4300 offer good value.
Later, with rate hike bearish sentiment still in play, gold is likely to form a double bottom around 4250-4210 before moving upward again. Once it breaks and holds above 4380, the upside potential opens up, targeting the previous highs around 4600-4700.
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