[Institutional Outlook on Bank of Japan Rate Decision: Rate Hike is Inevitable, Yen May Face Pressure if Forward Guidance is Not Hawkish Enough] BlockBeats News, September 18: The Bank of Japan will announce its target interest rate today. Ahead of this, multiple institutions have provided their outlook on the rate decision, summarized as follows: Reuters: Economists surveyed expect the policy rate to reach 1.5% by the end of March next year and 1.75% by the second quarter of 2027. Most economists believe the terminal rate will at least reach this level. BNP Paribas: Expected to raise rates by 25 basis points to 1.25%, followed by further hikes to 1.75% in December and March next year. The Bank of Japan may be concerned about inflation risks, as companies could pass rising costs of energy, metals, and chips onto consumers in the future. Goldman Sachs: Today's decision is "a done deal," with the earliest possibility of another rate hike in December. Elevated energy prices, strong AI demand, yen depreciation, and loose fiscal policy could all push inflation higher than expected. Japanese government bond yields still have room to rise, as current levels do not align with Japan's economic resilience. TD Securities: Expected to raise rates by 25 basis points to 1.25%, followed by additional 25 basis point hikes in December this year, and in April, July, and October 2027, bringing the target rate to 2.25%. If forward guidance does not account for rate hikes in October or December, the yen may face selling pressure, potentially falling to the 157-160 range. MUFG (Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group): The market expects the Bank of Japan to raise rates by 25 basis points and signal further hikes. If the central bank does not deliver sufficiently hawkish signals, the yen may weaken. However, as the market has already priced in a cumulative 90 basis point hike over the next 12 months, cautious remarks from Kazuo Ueda could put pressure on the yen.