比特幣交易者 科幣託 crypto|Sep 17, 2026 14:01
Bitcoin is showing a very important on chain signal.
Many people are still waiting for the bear market to continue,
But on chain data is telling us:
The probability of a bear market returning may be rapidly decreasing.
Look at the UTXOs in Loss% in this image.
UTXO can be simply understood as:
The unused 'chips' on the Bitcoin chain.
UTXOs in Loss represents:
What percentage of on chain chips currently have a buying cost higher than the current BTC price, indicating that they are still stuck.
The most important thing has come
This data has recently dropped rapidly from nearly 50% to about 27%.
What does it represent?
A large number of BTC chips that were previously trapped are now returning to profitability.
And what is truly noteworthy in history is not just that this indicator is' very low ',
But rather:
UTXOs in Loss rapidly collapse from an extremely high position.
It appeared in 2019.
It appeared in 2023.
Now in 2026, a very similar structure has emerged again.
This usually represents that the market is not simply a dead cat rebound,
But the price has already risen enough to allow a large number of on chain chips to be reversed, and the market cost structure is changing.
The most painful stage of a bear market is when more and more people are trapped.
The process of the bear market beginning and ending is exactly the opposite:
The trapped people began to unravel in large numbers.
This number is rapidly decreasing now.
If history rhymes again,
What we are seeing now may not be a rebound in a bear market, but rather a real breakdown of the bear market structure.
That's also why I keep saying:
Don't just focus on the price.
Before the real big market starts,
The chip structure on the chain often tells you the answer long ago.
The decline in UTXO in Loss alone cannot prove that the bear market has ended; It is best to combine realized price, MVRV, long and short-term holder costs, and spot/ETF cash flow to make a judgment.
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