看不懂的SOL
看不懂的SOL|Sep 17, 2026 09:16
Brothers, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates, but don't translate the word "rate hike" directly as "sell all". This time, the target range for the federal funds rate has been raised by 25 basis points to 3.75% -4.00%, with 12 votes in favor and no votes against. 25 basis points is 0.25 percentage points, not 25%. For ordinary investors, understanding three things is enough without memorizing all the policy terms. Firstly, the cost of borrowing money has increased. Corporate financing and household consumption will both be affected, but the transmission can be fast or slow. Credit cards and floating rate loans are usually more direct. Long term housing loans also depend on factors such as long-term treasury bond yields, and all interest rates will not rise as much at the same time. When it comes to stocks, companies have to face both financing costs and valuation pressures. Especially for companies whose profits are still far away and are currently mainly supported by growth expectations, they are often more sensitive to changes in interest rates. Secondly, the unanimous approval this time does not mean that additional votes will be added every time in the future. It indicates that the unanimous decision of the committee does not mean that the interest rate hike plan for the next few months has been signed. Next, we still need to consider inflation, employment, and consumption, and we cannot directly deduce one vote as' adding three times within the year '. Thirdly, the implementation of interest rate hikes does not necessarily mean that the market will decline on that day. If funds had already prepared for interest rate hikes and did not become more aggressive, prices could have rebounded instead. The market is still comparing how much the actual policy differs from the original expectations, and how long high interest rates will last in the future. So, in terms of my investment strategy, the key is to arrange the funds well. Set aside living expenses and emergency funds first, and control the basic fixed investment within the range that the cash flow can bear in the long term. Set a separate budget for additional positions, do not double the amount just after a slight drop, and use up all the money after several pullbacks. If interest rates continue to rise in the future, I will re-examine my position and ability to bear them; If we pause the interest rate hike, we won't suddenly buy up the budget for the next few months just because we're afraid of running out. Fixed investment can reduce timing pressure, but it cannot eliminate losses, let alone replace asset judgment. What I am more concerned about is: if high interest rates continue for six more months than expected, can this plan still be implemented? Only plans that can be endured have the opportunity to persist. The position supported by guessing the next interest rate is often more fragile than imagined.
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