Let's talk about this' hawkish interest rate hike 'again, why can the market withstand the rise instead of falling? Seeing some interpretations, I feel like I didn't get to the point. This time, Walsh not only raised interest rates but also raised hawkish expectations, emphasizing that the US economy has actually continued to strengthen in recent weeks. Bottom tier growth is stronger, while inflation remains a problem. The statement of 'removing some easing' also means that within Walsh's own policy framework, the current financial conditions are still not very tight. Especially this time, all 12 voting members in the FOMC voted in favor, which is equivalent to Walsh leading the Federal Reserve to switch from "whether to raise interest rates again" to "how much more needs to be added". Why can the market still hold on today? The earliest tweet was on the 15th at https://(x.com)/qinbafrank/status/2099694316444901645? As discussed in S=20, "With a considerable amount of tightening expectations in the market, it is difficult for the Federal Reserve to create a greater hawkish impact, and the medium-term core depends on the trend of oil prices. The core variable of this wave of inflation is oil prices, and even the core driving force behind the 26 year rebound and strengthening of inflation is still oil prices. Walsh gave hawkish guidance and expectations, but the market will not immediately be convinced. The market also looks at the trend of oil prices. If there are signs of a decline in oil prices, it is difficult to make people think that they will continue to soar. The oil price is falling, although Walsh's statement is tough, market sentiment can still rise, and whether it can continue to fall is the key in the future. It's like when Walsh made his debut in mid June, he was also very hawkish, but the market didn't believe he would raise interest rates within the year, not because the market rose after the June rate decision. But a few days earlier, on June 15th, the United States and Iran officially signed the Islamabad ceasefire memorandum, causing a sharp drop in oil prices and a significant drop in ten-year US bond yields. In the macro context of mid to late June, how could anyone have thought that Walsh would really soar. By mid July, the game between the United States and Iran had resumed, and the easing situation had been broken. After that, the expectation of interest rate hikes became increasingly high. Before today's interest rate resolution was announced, China's statement yesterday, the meeting between the United States and the Hussain armed forces in Oman, and then it was announced that Trump would meet with the leaders of the Gulf countries in New York next week to discuss the Iranian issue. These are potential factors that may cool the situation in the Middle East. Oil prices fall - "inflation expectations fall -" market sentiment is boosted. This is the key factor for the market to quickly rebound after a small plunge in the early morning when Walsh spoke, rather than anything else. If the oil price hasn't dropped from 108 to 104 from last night until today, but has remained at 108 or even touched 110, it can be said that the market can still hold on. So it is still necessary to identify what the most core key variables that affect market trends are. Returning to the tweet on the 15th, the key is the mid-term trend of oil prices 1) The sustained decline in oil prices will naturally lead to better market sentiment and expectations; 2) But there will be fluctuations in oil prices afterwards, with high volatility and even an upward trend that cannot sustain a decline (this is the biggest potential risk), and Walsh's tough attitude today will still affect the market. The market has not fully digested his attitude. There is another point that has been discussed in previous tweets: the fundamentals of AI are still very strong, and there are no problems with growth or commercialization. Strong fundamentals and high expectations for natural capital make it difficult to surrender, coupled with signs of weakening in the core influencing variable oil prices, natural emotions and expectations have risen. This article is sponsored by @ bitget_zh, "Bitget Buying US Stocks: Instant Entry, Smooth Trading