时光预言机i|Sep 17, 2026 06:10
Walsh's speech yesterday can be considered neutral, although his stance is hawkish. The rise in US bond yields is mainly due to the strong economy, increased capital expenditures, competition for funding needs, and global political factors, rather than the market losing confidence in the Federal Reserve's ability to resist inflation
It means that interest rates are currently high, but the economy is still strong, not that the economy has collapsed. As I mentioned earlier, raising interest rates themselves is not the biggest downside, the real danger is that the US economy is going downhill and the Fed continues to hawk
The back and forth insertion in the early morning is the expected realization of trading, and the remaining half month is the actual trading period
Bitcoin: After fluctuating up and down naturally, it did not directly fall below 75k but instead recovered. 75k is still the current key support
Now there are only two scripts!
Bitcoin: native 75K holds, 76K regains stability and will test 78K's position upwards
Bitcoin: native 75K falls, from support to pressure, and the duration of high US interest rates is longer than expected, which will directly lead to a bearish downward adjustment and seek 72K support
I think both of these scenarios can be ambushed. If 76k stands firm and cannot be broken, it can be extended to 82k, or if it falls below 75k, it can be shorted to 72k. The current market is in a stage of long short differentiation
I am more inclined to stand firm at 76k, test upwards at 78k, and then fall, so that both long and short positions can be taken!
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