Fed raises rates by 25bp (first hike in 2023) Dot plot leans hawkish, with the possibility of another hike this year Senate's CLARITY Act didn’t pass Regulatory expectations fell through, triggering a wave of long liquidations BTC plunges with a big red candle, breaking previous lows Long positions hit stop-loss; rebound follows the drop A healthy correction typically sees red candles with decreasing volume Currently, the decline is accompanied by increasing volume, indicating strong selling pressure Scenario 1: Consolidation continues, selling pressure gradually eases, and the consolidation period extends Scenario 2: A decisive break below the rounded top neckline at 75,600, leading to further downside; trend reversal, not just a simple pullback Scenario 3: A strong green candle recovers the structure, flip to long positions, targeting 81,000–82,000 Currently, repeated tests of the lows suggest a "break-recover" pattern with frequent shakeouts, but no strong green candle has confirmed significant capital inflows yet. No clear signal of a bullish reversal in the market structure. Conditions for long entry: A quick wick down → recovery of the low, followed by a strong green candle forming a structural reversal. A pullback after that would be a safer entry for long positions. Open interest is slowly rising, while CVD is declining, showing minor bullish divergence on smaller timeframes, but it’s not enough to trigger a major rally. Most likely, further dips will occur to shake out stop-losses. Daily funding rates are relatively high, which isn’t favorable for an immediate strong rebound. Hourly order book leans slightly bullish. Support: 75,600–75,000 (this week’s defense line). If it holds, the outlook remains bullish. If it breaks, watch for 73,500–71,500.