"Walsh's Debut: Inflation Still Too High, No Forward Guidance Given" The Fed raised rates by 25bp overnight, marking Walsh's debut as Chair. Here are the key points from Walsh's speech: On Inflation: "Inflation remains too high and has persisted for too long. The inflation data released this summer has not shown me meaningful improvement in underlying inflation trends." "The FOMC is not convinced that inflation is moving back toward the 2% target level. There is almost no evidence suggesting inflation trends are passing the test." On the Economy: "The U.S. economy appears to be strengthening. Productivity growth is robust, capital investment is solid, credit flows have remained strong, and financial conditions are not restrictive." ✈️ On the Future Path: "I am not responsible for providing forward guidance. The decision we made today was carefully considered, serious, and responsible." On Oil Prices and Geopolitics: "We cannot influence the price of any specific commodity. However, what we can and will do is ensure that changes in relative prices do not further spread or cause second- or third-order effects on the broader economy." On AI: "We are very concerned about the impact of AI on the demand side of the economy and ultimately on the supply side. Relevant working groups should submit their reports by the end of the year." On Trump: "I have nothing to say about my conversations with the President." His press conference lasted only about 30 minutes, the shortest in recent years. The dot plot median indicates one more rate hike in 2026, which I predict will most likely happen in December. Final Thoughts from Little Dragon: The hawkishness of Walsh's speech lies not in "what he said," but in "what he refused to say." He avoided giving forward guidance, but the statement "financial conditions are not restrictive" is itself the strongest hawkish signal—it essentially admits that current rates are still not high enough. The key takeaway is that the dot plot shows 16 members supporting another rate hike this year, which is a more direct hint. While the rate hike was expected and falls under "priced-in negatives," Walsh's wording and the dot plot dampen the rebound logic of "negatives priced in." Overall, the Fed's rate hike and the indication of another hike in December are bearish for Bitcoin, suppressing the bulls' momentum and sustainability! BTC's current price of 76K remains a short-term pivot point—holding above it means consolidation, while breaking below it could test 74.5K. The subsequent BTC price movement will likely complete a healthy correction following the bull market kickoff, with a gradual downward trend. The final target range for the adjustment is 67K-71K.