Phyrex|Sep 16, 2026 19:35
The hammer has dropped. The Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points, but it’s not over yet. On Friday, Japan is very likely to also hike rates by 25 basis points. Plus, judging by the current situation, the Hormuz issue is impacting both the U.S. and Japan—let’s not even get started on Europe. Based on today’s dot plot, there’s a pretty high chance the Fed will raise rates again in October. And even if Japan takes it slow, they might hike rates again this year too. Things might get a little turbulent ahead.
That said, the rate hike is actually helping U.S. oil prices for now. After Walsh’s speech, oil futures started retreating below $100. The Fed is basically telling Iran in its own way: if you block us, we’ll raise rates. It’s like saying, ‘If you bite me again, I’ll go home and keep spanking the kids.’ Yeah, something like that.
Personally, I think both the Fed and Walsh were pretty hawkish today. You can see it in the market’s reaction. When the 25 basis point hike was first announced, the market went up because it was expected. But after Walsh’s speech, U.S. stocks and bitcoin:native both started dipping. Everyone knows that in the short term, not even Trump TACO can solve the Hormuz issue. That means rate hikes and high interest rates will coexist for a long time. Definitely not good news.
The bond market didn’t perform well either. After Walsh’s speech, I was originally planning to set up a $72,000 buy order for Bitcoin, but then I thought about Japan’s rate hike on Friday. If I buy now, it’ll just ride into the turbulence by Friday. So I decided to hold off and wait until after Japan’s rate hike, when investors have calmed down a bit, to make a move.
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