The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points tonight, bringing the rate to 3.75% -4.00%. Just looking at this interest rate hike, it's not really scary because the market has already started trading in advance. What really needs attention is the dot plot: the median interest rate will rise to 4.1% by the end of 2026, and 16 out of 18 officials who submitted forecasts believe that further interest rate hikes are needed this year; At the end of 2027, the median remained at around 4.1%. What does this mean? It's not the end of tonight's hike, but the Federal Reserve has drawn a clearer path for the market: there is a high probability of another hike this year, and it may not continue next year, but interest rates may remain high for a longer period of time. Walsh's speech was generally hawkish. He emphasized that inflation is still too high and price stability is currently the most important task for the Federal Reserve. At the same time, he did not commit to continuous interest rate hikes and emphasized that policies will be flexibly adjusted based on inflation, employment, oil prices, and financial conditions. So this is not a 'violent interest rate hike cycle restart', it's more like: adding one tonight, leaving room for another at the end of the year, and then observing at high interest rate levels. For BTC, the most important phenomenon tonight is that after the bearish sentiment hit, the price did not experience a runaway decline, but instead returned to around $76000, indicating that the 25 basis points themselves have been digested by the market. What funds are really worried about is "adding again at the end of the year" and "maintaining high interest rates for a longer period of time". Next, we only need to focus on three positions: $76000 is the short-term long short battle line. Being able to stand firm, BTC has the opportunity to continue rebounding towards $80000 to $82000. $72400 is the first important line of defense. As long as it hasn't fallen below here, it still belongs to the high range oscillation, not a trend collapse. If $72400 is effectively lost, it indicates that hawkish pressure is beginning to truly transmit to the currency price, and the next step is highly likely to test $69600. My overall judgment is that the short-term volatility is bearish, and the medium-term direction still depends on whether $72400 is held. Tonight's 25 basis points is not the most dangerous, the most dangerous thing is that inflation will continue to rebound, forcing the Federal Reserve to turn a "one-time rate hike" into a "continuous rate hike". If the US dollar and US Treasury yields continue to strengthen, BTC's rebound to around 80000 is still easily suppressed. But looking at it the other way around, if BTC still holds at $72400 in a bearish environment and regains its position at $76000, it means that the downside is being digested. Once the US dollar falls back, BTC may quickly replenish to $80000-82000. Summary in one sentence: In the short term, we cannot blindly chase the rise, nor do we need to panic when we see interest rate hikes. Hold onto 72400 and continue to watch for fluctuations and rebounds; Falling below 72400, defending 69600; To truly strengthen, we must stand on the 80000 dollar mark again.