What would happen to BTC if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates again in December? How to translate Now, the September interest rate hike has landed, and the dot matrix suggests there will be another one within the year. If we really add it again in December, how will BTC go in the future? Make a hypothetical deduction of BTC price trend. September November: under pressure with fluctuations, ranging from 73K to 80K. The expectation of a December interest rate hike is still in place, and the tightening is not yet over, so funds dare not enter the market in large quantities. Above 80K is strong resistance, multiple impacts have failed. 73.5K below (daily Fib 0.618) is the key support. In extreme cases, if oil prices continue to soar or CPI rebounds, it may test 71K. The flow of ETF funds is a key variable. Last week, the ETF had a net outflow of $463 million, marking the first weekly net outflow since June. The buying orders that had previously driven BTC from 63K to 82K disappeared. December interest rate hike landing: turning point ❗ ️ The FOMC on December 9th is the last interest rate hike window of the year. If the interest rate hike is implemented and the tightening cycle is coming to an end, the market will digest the "boot landing" effect, and the suppressed risk appetite may be released. Based on Metcalfe's Law, the fair value of BTC is approximately $105000, and currently around $75000 is in a "discounted" state. CZ also stated earlier that 'every drop is an opportunity'. Q1-Q2 of 2027: Trend reversal, target 83K → 90K+ ⚡ ️ After the December interest rate hike is implemented, if CPI continues to fall and employment cools down, the market will begin to price the "end of the interest rate hike cycle". At that time, the breakthrough of 83K in volume is a confirmed signal of comprehensive launch, and ETF buying may return, which will verify the undertaking behavior of the giant whale. But the premise is that 71K is not broken. If the December interest rate hike is combined with a hawkish dot matrix, causing BTC to fall below 71K or even 64K, the start of the bull market will be significantly delayed. Key observation points: Looking at oil prices and CPI in October, determine whether the expectation of interest rate hikes will strengthen. Looking at the midterm elections in November, political pressure may limit the room for interest rate hikes. Looking at the FOMC resolution in December, a turning point. By examining CPI and employment in Q1 2027, we can determine whether the interest rate hike cycle has truly come to an end. Xiaolong gives everyone a summary: From September to November, there will be fluctuating pressure, mainly in the 73K-80K range; The implementation of the December interest rate hike is a turning point signal; The full launch was confirmed only after a breakthrough of 83K in volume. The direction of the bull market remains unchanged, but the overall surge may be postponed until after December. Figure: Prediction of BTC weekly price trend