The real downside tonight is not the Fed raising interest rates, but the dot matrix officially telling the market that this may just be the first step. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled, raising the upper limit of interest rates from 3.75% to 4%. This result has already been priced by the market and is not surprising in itself. What is truly alarming are the other three signals. Firstly, the median interest rate at the end of 2026 will be raised from 3.8% in June to 4.1%. This means that after tonight's addition, the Federal Reserve expects to add it again before the end of the year. The previous market debate was about whether there would be a rate hike, but now the discussion has turned into 'how many more times do we need to increase it?'. Secondly, the Federal Reserve has made it clear that raising interest rates will support inflation to return to its 2% target in a more timely manner. This statement indicates that the policy focus has shifted back to combating inflation. As long as there is no significant decline in oil prices, PCE, and inflation expectations, the Federal Reserve will not easily announce the end of this round of interest rate hikes. Thirdly, this decision was unanimously passed, while the vote at the last meeting was still 9-3. This indicates that the internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are converging, and the hawks have gradually shifted from Walsh's personal attitude to committee consensus. However, this result belongs to a biased eagle, not a critical hit beyond expectations. Because interest rate futures have already priced the year-end effective rate at around 4.2%, the 4.1% in the dot plot is basically close to market expectations. The most dangerous thing for BTC is not tonight's 25 basis points, but whether Walsh will imply a continuous interest rate hike next. If Walsh emphasizes that the follow-up still depends on data and does not promise to continue raising interest rates in October, BTC may rebound from negative sentiment after a brief dip. If he emphasizes that inflation risks are still rising and clearly states that he may continue to act in future meetings, then US bond yields and the US dollar will continue to strengthen. After BTC falls below $75000 to $76000, the next step is to look around 72400 or even 69600. Summary in one sentence: Tonight's result is bearish for BTC, but what really determines the market is not the interest rate hike that has already landed, but whether Walsh will describe "one interest rate hike" as "a cycle of interest rate hikes".