Tonight, the Fed's 25 basis point rate hike is almost a sure thing, but what truly determines $BTC's direction isn't whether they hike or not—it's whether the dot plot signals to the market that this is a one-off hike or the start of a new tightening cycle. Currently, the market is pricing in over a 90% probability of a 25 basis point hike tonight, with the expected rate range rising to 3.75%–4.00%. Looking at this step alone, the impact on the market might be limited since expectations have already been largely priced in. The real game-changer is the median rate projection for the end of 2026. If the dot plot stays around 3.9%, it means that after tonight's hike, there's a high chance of a pause, which would lean dovish. In this case, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar might pull back, and $BTC could see a "bad news priced in" rebound, potentially challenging the $80,000–$82,000 range again. If the median rate rises to around 4.1%, it suggests there's likely one more hike before the end of the year. This is the scenario I think is most probable: the rate hike cycle has begun, but not every meeting will result in a hike. In the short term, $BTC might face pressure, with key support levels at $75,000–$76,000 being tested. Only after holding these levels can we expect a technical recovery. If the dot plot hits around 4.4%, it implies at least two more hikes before the end of the year, which would be a significantly hawkish surprise. In this case, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar could continue strengthening, and if $BTC breaks below $75,000, the next level to watch would be $72,400, with an extreme scenario potentially testing the $69,600 area. Waller's recent comments have been notably hawkish: inflation remains above target, employment hasn't significantly deteriorated, and financial conditions can't be considered tight. Therefore, I lean toward tonight's outcome being "25 basis point hike + dot plot adjusted to around 4.1%." For $BTC, the best-case scenario tonight isn't no rate hike, but rather a hike followed by a signal to the market that "this is it." The worst-case scenario isn't the 25 basis points itself, but the dot plot confirming this is just the first step. Keep an eye on three key numbers tonight: 3.9% signals bad news priced in, 4.1% suggests bearish consolidation, and 4.4% means brace for a new round of downside.