"The First Rate Hike of the Walsh Era is Here: Three Scenarios to Watch" Hey fam, at 2:00 AM Beijing time this Thursday, the Fed's FOMC will announce its rate decision, followed by Walsh's press conference. The market has priced in a 92.5% probability of a 25 basis point hike, marking Walsh's first rate hike since taking charge of the Fed in May. The real focus isn't on whether rates will rise, but on these three key points: 1️⃣ **Voting Breakdown**: At the July meeting, the vote was 9-3 to hold rates steady, with three votes favoring a hike. This time, the final voting breakdown will reveal whether July's "three votes for a hike" were a minority opinion or the start of a broader policy shift. 2️⃣ **Dot Plot**: More important than the 25 basis points itself. If the dot plot signals limited further hikes, the market will interpret it as a "one-off adjustment." But if more officials support continued tightening, a September hike could mark the beginning of a new tightening cycle. The latter is the part the market hasn't fully priced in yet. 3️⃣ **Walsh's Language**: Walsh faces dual pressures: Trump pushing for low rates, while the 10-year Treasury yield has already surpassed 5%. Hiking rates would clash with the White House, but holding steady would contradict his previous hawkish stance. Walsh is known for avoiding forward guidance, making the press conference harder to predict than the decision itself. **Three Scenarios**: ① **Hike + Limited Dot Plot + Neutral Language** → Bearish sentiment priced in, stocks and bonds stabilize, USD slightly retreats, Bitcoin rebounds and rallies . ② **Hike + Dot Plot shows two or more hikes ahead** → 10-year Treasury yield breaks above 5%, U.S. stocks face pressure, USD strengthens, risk assets broadly decline, Bitcoin continues to drop and test new lows. ③ **Surprise Hold** → Market volatility spikes, USD plunges, gold and BTC may see short-term surges. The hike is already 92% priced in—the real risk lies in the combination of "dot plot + language." If the path points to "one or two hikes, then done," the market can absorb it. But if it signals consecutive hikes, that's the real squeeze. No rush—let's sit back and watch the show. Walsh makes the first move.