Today's market There isn't much to see today Just wait for the FOMC .. Today's interest rate hike of 25bp has become a benchmark in the market . (There is even a hint that it has to be added. If it is forcibly not added, the market is worried that the credibility of the FED will be undermined, and it may even lead to stronger long-term interest rates.) It's just a matter of whether it's Eagle Plus or Pigeon Plus .. There are both factions in the market now Pigeon Plus: Raising interest rates is necessary to avoid severe fluctuations in the market that has already been priced at 90% without adding any points (a scenario where an increase is necessary) The caliber remains unchanged and no forward guidance will be provided (regardless of whether to continue or not to add in the future) If it implies that this is just a minor adjustment, or implies that the decline in inflation does not require continuous increase, etc Deviation pigeon signal: Emphasize data analysis, do not preset a path for interest rate hikes, and emphasize that demand is not overheated or there is no energy disturbance . Eagle Plus: 1. Implied or dot matrix modifications may lead to expectations of more than one occurrence this year. Several biased interpretations suggest that at least 2 times in September and December are needed this year Eagle signal: Afterwards, the speech emphasized the focus on inflation and reiterated Jackson Hole's statement that inflation had not improved enough. Dot matrix chart revision (more than once this year) for full or near full coverage of interest rate hikes, etc. So let's focus on the speech Walsh's style is to give less foresight and not submit dot charts himself, emphasizing that inflation of 2% is a hard line. ---------- Returning to today's market At this price, the spot buying below is actually not weak. (Figure 1) And it is a concentrated layout of spot, contract, and Coinbase spot between 72-75k. At present, the color band model (Figure 2) shows that the near range color band was already eaten when it broke 76k yesterday. Currently, there are still pending orders within the blue box range in Figure 1 for 72-74k. All of these together constitute the current buying demand below. ------------ On the financial front, we are still not optimistic today (Figure 3) After the opening, the premium is still negative, but there are not as many negative as yesterday. Yesterday, it turned negative all day and eventually flowed out 400 million. It is estimated that there may still be around 1-2 billion left today. So now the rebound is weak, and it is very likely to continue testing the low point below today -------------- At the same time, the overall network OI is still very high The short sellers who chased short yesterday only exploded a small wave during the rebound. Later on, these bears fell and caught up again. The bears are still playing games, and today's FOMC can be lower. --------------- Today's plan before the FOMC is still to squat and look at the two intervals in Figure 4. The high-altitude range near 77k above, with a few days of POC stacking contracts and small pending orders. Below the front low of 74.5k, there are several weak low points of liquidity combined with small contract pending orders. Observe the short position before FOMC ..