Why is Bitcoin soaring, but still few people can make money? In 2022, Bitcoin increased from 15000 to 126000, almost eight times. Even those bought around 30000 yuan are more than four times as many, and recently rebounded from 57000 yuan to 77000 yuan, with a significant rebound. With such an obvious opportunity in front of us, theoretically there should be a group of people who will make a fortune. The reality is the opposite: there are still a few who can truly make money and keep it. The problem often lies not in Bitcoin, but in the human brain. Some things can be done better and better by relying on experience. Just like driving, if you turn in the wrong direction, the car veers up and the brakes are late, you immediately feel it, the feedback is fast and relatively accurate. So driving for ten years is usually better than driving for one year. Investment is not like that. I bought a coin and it went up. You thought you were right in your judgment. But is it rising because you analyzed it correctly or just happened to catch up with a bull market? confound with. Even worse, if you make a wrong judgment, the market can sometimes make you make money. This is called error feedback. It will package a set of bad methods into successful experiences. The most typical example in the cryptocurrency industry is altcoins. In 2021, DeFi, NFT, and GameFi exploded one after another, with many coins rising tens or hundreds of times. The market quickly learns one thing: buying knockoffs can lead to sudden wealth, doubling Bitcoin is not interesting. That set of experience was indeed effective at the time, so it was engraved into the minds of many people. In a bear market, ambush knockoffs in advance, thinking that the next round will replicate the previous one. In 2024, Bitcoin hit a new high again, and many people feel that the familiar script is here, and the knockoff season is coming soon. The script did not follow the experience. Many knockoffs haven't even touched half of the previous high point. After the fact, there are a lot of explanations: high interest rates, ETFs not buying knockoffs, too many coins, and structural changes. These statements may all make sense, but they are all hindsight Zhuge Liang. Before losing money, you don't know that anything can be recovered after losing. The more dangerous thing is not to lose once, but to summarize a set of wrong experiences after losing. Garbage coins have increased tenfold, and you think it doesn't matter if they look like garbage, they can rise with hotspots. Next time I buy something similar, reset it to zero. Do you think you bought too late this time, so you ambushed earlier, or are you losing. The more serious the research, the more diligent the trading, the more experienced it is, but the account is getting smaller and smaller. This is called the diligence trap. Not all experiences are valuable, some become more harmful as they accumulate. So investment should not pursue that I can always predict right, but should pursue that I can still live if I am wrong. If a set of methods must rely on the next hot spot and the next hundredfold coin, then it is very fragile. Wrong once, the result may be completely different. A relatively stable approach is: I don't know who will win, but I try my best to take things that may shine regardless of who wins. Don't bet your wealth on one story. Many people eventually return to Bitcoin, not because it is always rising and risk-free, but because of its special position in the cryptocurrency market. When money enters this market, it is often the first thing to look at; Emotionally, it is usually not absent; When institutions come in, attention is often focused on them first. You don't have to bet on whether the next round will be AI, DeFi, or MEME. ETH, SOL, BNB and other public chains also have their own logic, and no one can guarantee who can continue to receive value. The key is not which one will definitely rise, but whether I made a wrong judgment and will be directly eliminated. Investment is not an exam, there is no need to get every question right. What you want is: after making a few mistakes, you are still eligible to continue taking the exam. The most important thing for old leeks to quit is predicting addiction. I am busy studying macro, on chain, K-line, Twitter, narrative, and capital flow every day, and I still don't know whether it will rise or fall tomorrow. Normal. The market is not something that can be completely accurately calculated. What can be done is to reduce dependence on necessary predictions. Not filling the position, not borrowing money, not touching things that are completely incomprehensible, not adding leverage just because of one profit, not desperately trying to recoup just because of one loss, and not assuming that the next round will follow the same script just because you made a profit in the previous round. The real strength of Bitcoin is not just how many times it has risen, but it has revealed a cruel fact: opportunities can last for a long time, but the money that truly belongs to you must endure time, discipline, and fluctuations in order to stay. Predictions can be wrong, empty handed, and you can miss out on many hundredfold coins. It's best not to kick yourself out of the market just because of one mistake. The most important thing is never whether you can catch the next hundredfold coin, but how much principal is left in four years and whether you can continue playing the next round. The market's favorite winners are often not the smartest people, but those who know what they don't know and are willing to leave a safety margin for uncertainty. Predict less, live longer!