TraderS | 缺德道人|Sep 16, 2026 10:42
The rate hike is a done deal—just waiting for the official announcement now.
Next up, the real debate is whether Walsh's speech will lean dovish or hawkish. Judging from the U.S. Treasury market, there's a higher chance he'll lean dovish. After all, going hawkish at this point would just be adding fuel to the fire, right?
What's even more critical is this dot plot. If he keeps playing it cool like last time—reducing his speaking time and content—then we'll have to rely on the chart to figure out his true intentions.
Back in July, the dot plot's first vote basically set the stage for this rate hike. This time, the dot plot will likely shape the market's direction for the next three months.
As for the market reaction after tonight's rate hike announcement:
It'll probably go like this: U.S. Treasury yields drop initially, risk markets rally, but then high oil prices push Treasury yields back up, ending the risk market rebound.
Bottom line: We're all waiting on Trump to solve the oil price issue. Otherwise, it's all just empty talk.
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